Madhya Pradesh poll: Congress lays hopes on Muslim votes, banks on 22 swing seats in case of tough contest

Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections: In the bi-party politics of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress in Madhya Pradesh, the 'factor of Muslim vote' may not be as important as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but in case of neck-and-neck contest in the assembly elections to be held next month, at least the votes of the minority community may prove crucial l in at least 22 seats.

The Madhya Pradesh assembly elections are just around the corner. With eyes on Muslim votes, the Congress has announced candidates for all seats, except for the Aalampur seat in the Betul district. It is being reported that Nisha Bangare, a female Deputy Collector, is seeking a ticket from this seat, but the incumbent BJP government has not yet approved her resignation. The matter is currently pending in the court.
Mohammed Mahir, the coordinator of Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad, associated with the Congress, mentioned that their party's vote percentage increased by at least three to four per cent in the 2018 assembly elections, allowing it to narrowly surpass the BJP.
He mentioned that Kamal Nath, the Madhya Pradesh unit chief of the Congress, had stated in 2018 that if 90 per cent of the minority votes come in favour of the party, then the party can form the government. “On Nath's appeal, minority votes were polled for Congress and the result was 10-12 more seats being added to the party' kitty which the party had failed to win in 2008 and 2013,” Mahir claimed.
In the previous elections, BJP's vote percentage (41.02 per cent) was slightly more than that of Congress (40.89 per cent), but Congress became the party with the highest number of seats by winning 114 seats out of 230, while BJP got 109 seats. The Congress formed a coalition government with the support of MLAs from the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Independent legislators. However, this government fell apart after 15 months due to defections by Congress MLAs.
Whenever voters get angry with the BJP, they elect a Congress government and vice-versa. According to the 2011 census, the Muslim population in Madhya Pradesh is 7 per cent but it might have increased to 9-10 percent. The Muslim vote is influential in 47 assembly seats, while they play a decisive role in 22 constituencies. In these 47 seats, the number of Muslim voters ranges from 5,000 to 15,000, while in the 22 assembly segments, their numbers range from 15,000 to 35,000.
“This means Muslim voters are a deciding factor in 22 seats in case of a neck-and-neck contest. These seats include three segments from Bhopal, two in Indore, Burhanpur, Jaora and Jabalpur among others,” he added.
Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh Wakf Board Chairman and BJP spokesperson, Sanwar Patel, accused the Congress of betraying the minority community in politics. Patel mentioned that the Congress fields just two minority candidates in the elections, aiming for 90-100 per cent of the Muslim vote share, despite not doing much for the Muslim community during its 53-year rule in the state until 2003. He claimed that the BJP has not only given tickets to minority candidates but also ensured the social and economic development of Muslims. Patel argued that the minority community had lagged behind during Congress's rule.
Senior journalist Girija Shankar said that the Muslim vote in Madhya Pradesh will not influence politics as significantly as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. “Though minority voters are influential in Burhanpur, Ashta, Ratlam, and Indore, Bhopal is an exception as far as the concentration of their votes is concerned,” he said, adding that unlike UP and Bihar, the Muslim factor has no impact on Madhya Pradesh electoral politics.
Mahir said that in the 2013 and 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP's attempts to bring Muslim community leaders into the fray from the North and Central Bhopal constituencies failed. He claimed that the traditional Congress vote bank, which includes non-Muslims as well, is not transferring to the party's candidates. To secure victories for minority community candidates, it is the party's responsibility to bring voters to the polling centers. According to Mahir, Muslim representation in the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly has been limited to the seats of North Bhopal and Central Bhopal in recent years.
In the upcoming state assembly elections, the Congress party has given a ticket to Atif Akil, the son of Arif Aqeel. Atif will challenge Alok Sharma, the former mayor of North Bhopal and BJP candidate, while Arif Masood is once again in the electoral arena from Central Bhopal. Mahir claims that Bhopal North is not a Muslim-dominated seat and Arif Akil could only win because of the support of non-Muslim voters, who are traditionally loyal to the Congress.
After a gap of nearly two decades, two MLAs from the Muslim community, Arif Akil and Arif Masood, were elected to the Madhya Pradesh Assembly after winning the 2018 elections. Prior to that, Hameed Qazi had been elected as an MLA from Burhanpur in 2003. The 71-year-old veteran Congress leader Arif Akil had left the party in 1993 but later rejoined it.
(With PTI inputs)
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